Research

Source: Climate Art Project

Working Papers

Barriers within Borders: Climate Change, Market Barriers, and Structural Transformation DRAFT ON REQUEST

Abstract

This paper examines how climate change is hindering structural transformation in India and the role of internal trade barriers in it. I combine local temperature effects on productivity, consumption, and labor shares with a static spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the potential for labor reallocation out of agriculture as an adaptation to climate change. My empirical findings show that temperature has a more negative impact on agricultural productivity than on manufacturing (supply-side effect), and household expenditure on food increases as incomes fall, consistent with Engel’s law (demand-side effect). Rising temperatures also increase the agricultural labor share, hindering structural transformation. Districts in India could mitigate against the adverse effects of declining agricultural productivity through inter-district trade. Using a market access variable created by using development of Indian highways, I find that improved market access does not disrupt the positive relationship between temperature and agricultural labor share. I find that trade barriers reduce spatial competition among buyers and traps labor in low-productivity agriculture. I then calibrate a spatial equilibrium model with internal trade barriers to Indian data. Counterfactual analysis reveals that removing state-level trade barriers in Indian agriculture will increase income by 4.65% on average for each household and decrease agricultural labor share by 0.1pp on average for each district (~ 28.9 million people across India).

Stumped by the Sun, Saved by the Side: How Do Teams Adapt to Heat? Evidence on Peer Adaptation SUBMITTED

SSRN · Working Paper

Abstract

How do teams respond to temperature when individual productivity declines? Using high-frequency data from international cricket, I examine how heat affects team production. Individual productivity declines by 1.46%–2.68% per degree Celsius, yet equilibrium output, jointly determined by individual effort, peer coordination, and adversarial pressure, remains unaffected. Decomposing equilibrium output into individual, peer, and adversarial components, I find that peer interactions become significantly more important under heat while adversarial interactions remain unchanged, indicating that peers, not weaker opponents, offset the individual decline. This adaptation is driven by complementarity in skills among peers.

Works in progress

  • Fragile Flames: Geopolitical Shocks and Clean Energy Transition

  • Local Impacts of Global Policies: Deforestation and the European Union Deforestation Regulation (with Matthieu Stigler and Sabine Stillger)

  • Climate Change and Mechanization of Agriculture in India (with Bhavya Srivastava)

  • Climate Change and Informal Insurance Networks (with Matthew Gordon)

Book Chapters